Trump Surges to Close Gap Against Harris with Key Voting Group: Poll

Former President Donald Trump is gaining support among Hispanic voters, narrowing the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris and marking his best performance with this key group in two months, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll.
Conducted on October 6 and 7, the poll surveyed 1,604 adult U.S. citizens, including registered voters, and shows Harris with 48 percent support among Hispanics, compared to Trump’s 43 percent. The five-point margin is the closest the two candidates have been since Harris announced her presidential bid in July.
At that time, a poll from July 21 to 23 showed Harris leading by six points with 44 percent support. However, throughout August and September, Harris saw larger gains. A September 1-2 poll showed her with 59 percent support to Trump’s 30 percent, a 29-point lead, while a September 15-17 poll had her leading by 28 points.
The October survey shows the narrowest gap yet, suggesting a shift in momentum toward Trump as both candidates intensify their campaigns. Hispanics are a crucial bloc in 2024, with about 36.2 million eligible voters, making them the second-largest group after white voters. Of these, 17.5 million are expected to cast ballots, including significant populations in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.
The survey also underscored the top issues driving decisions among Hispanic voters. The economy and immigration emerged as the most important concerns. According to the poll, 78 percent of Hispanic respondents considered jobs and the economy “very important” when deciding their vote, while 57 percent emphasized immigration​.
Historically, Latinos have leaned Democratic, but recent shifts in voting patterns have raised concerns for the party. A UnidosUS poll shows that while Harris still leads Trump among Latino voters, her 59 percent support is slightly lower than the 61 percent Joe Biden secured in 2020.
Among Hispanics, younger voters are especially important for this election, according to recent research. According to UnidosUS, 38 percent of the Hispanic electorate will be new since the 2016 Trump-Hillary Clinton race, with 1 in 5 casting a vote in a presidential election for the first time.
Throughout the campaign, Trump and Harris have taken new approaches to connect with Hispanic voters, moving away from traditional Spanish-language outlets like Univision and Telemundo. Harris has focused on engaging with local media, while Trump has targeted young Hispanic men, earning endorsements from Puerto Rican reggaeton stars like Anuel and Nicky Jam.
With 27 days until the election, neither Trump nor Harris has yet participated in a Spanish-only media event. Harris is scheduled to appear on Univision later this week, with Trump following next week after his initial appearance was delayed by weather.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows Harris leading. Among registered voters, she holds a narrow edge with 47 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent. The gap widens slightly among likely voters, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 45 percent.